17 Thoughts on the Election

Race, the sex gap, abortion, democracy, demographic determinism, and more

I’m excited about the election. I’ll be livestreaming on Substack throughout Election Day, so check in on the app. I’m going to talk to Alex Nowrasteh at 2PM ET/11 AM PT, and will hopefully have other guests too. Here are seventeen thoughts going in.

1. Trump is magical. Other Republicans try to adopt the Trumpist style and his talking points, it just doesn’t work. He’s consistently running ahead of Republican senate candidates, and has an intensity of support and broad appeal that other Republicans can’t match.

2. After Dobbs, I thought that we might see a permanent realignment around abortion. It’s possible that the Trump campaign has obfuscated on the issue enough to somewhat neutralize it. But if Harris wins, it’ll be because of women, and abortion will probably be the number one issue motivating them. That will have implications for how we talk about the subject going forward. Trump will see pro-lifers as a scapegoat because the alternative is that he’s personally to blame, and this will reduce their status within the GOP. He’s already criticized them before, but I expect him to be even more direct and consistent in his attacks.