AI Progress, Racism and the Election, Trump Picks, and More

Links for November 2024

Megan Gafford recently wrote on Art Deco and American architecture. It was sort of a frustrating read because I’ve never seen an article so in need of pictures. Please include photos if you’re going to do art history or criticism! I had to keep stopping and googling different things.

Anyway, I asked Megan how her views fit with those of Ayn Rand, and she responded. And here is me talking to the incredible (you’ll see why) Zoe Booth on the Quillette podcast.

Below, I provide links and commentary on topics including the rise of Christianity, whether racism is a good explanation for the 2024 election outcome, and the origins of the war in Ukraine, along with a review of Joker 2.

1. In-depth report on the violence in Ecuador. Upshot, after describing a country in the midst of shocking savagery: “Whether Noboa can effectively imitate Bukele’s efforts remains unclear. Doing so would require disregarding Ecuador’s constitution.”

This is insane. Civil liberties are great. But this needs to be considered a war time situation. Note how much the gangs are able to function and recruit in prisons, or officers talking about how they have trouble prosecuting people. Note also how gangs recruit minors to commit crimes because they can’t be prosecuted as adults. These are luxuries that Ecuador cannot afford.

2. Can you get better polling results by asking people who their neighbors are voting for? People argue it was a good measure this time, but the same thing was asked in 2022 and it worked terribly. Interestingly, it was tilted relative to the polls in the same direction as 2024, predicting Republicans doing better. My theory is Republicans are just less neurotic and project confidence, and people read “who are your neighbors voting for?” as “who will win around you?” and they go with the more confident side.

3. Brian Chau with a high IQ case for Trump’s destructive style. The low IQ case that bears a superficial resemblance to it is “the elites hate you, are replacing you, etc.” That’s Tuckerism. Better case, alluded to here, is that systems are dysfunctional and you need to go to war to get basic competence and accountability.

4. Dan Klein with thoughts on whether you can be a populist and a classical liberal, with a focus on Milei. I agree with the implication that those atThe UnPopulist Substack are letting their aesthetic distaste for populism get in the way of them appreciating Milei’s successes, which they should.

I also agree that populism in rare instances can be good. In Argentina, where the establishment is socialist and there’s a long history of statism, great, be a populist libertarian. On the American right, though, populism has been associated with a shift in a more statist direction on entitlements (biggest part of government spending), immigration, and trade. It’s also brought in conspiratorial thinking on issues like vaccines and made the right anti-democratic as a general matter, at least whenever Trump loses.

Milei is an exception, but populism is almost always anti-liberal. Mostly this is because elites are more liberal than the masses, so if you’re going to whip people up against them it has to be from a statist position. Tyler has a similar idea.

5. ***REVIEW: Joker: Folie à Deux***