Biden Won't Quit Because Being Old Sucks

Aging is a horror, so you might as well be president

I’ve achieved a bit of fame over the last four years. Not that much, as I’ve only been recognized twice “out in the wild.” But at any event that draws a crowd that is into politics or rationalism, a lot of people come up to me and introduce themselves. Acquaintances and even strangers reach out a lot with business and social opportunities, and they are much more likely to answer my texts and emails than they used to be. Most of the ways in which people treat you differently are quite subtle. They’ll share a piece of gossip that they probably should keep to themselves, put up with some level of mild rudeness they otherwise wouldn’t tolerate, or ask for my insight on a topic that is unfamiliar to me, and continue listening respectfully long after it’s become clear that I have no idea what I’m talking about.

All these things make my social life a lot more pleasant. In the grand scheme of things, I’m not that important. But it’s clear that reaching some level of notoriety in certain political and intellectual circles has changed the nature of my interactions with nearly everyone I come into sustained contact with. I can only imagine what it’s like to be famous famous, like a senator, an NBA superstar, or a Kardashian. This is why athletes and world leaders hang on too long, and why someone who achieves 15 minutes of fame as a reality TV star can spend the next few decades desperately struggling to regain the relevance they once had.

Last night, it became obvious to all fair-minded observers that Joe Biden is not up to the job of being president. His staff has been hiding him from the world, and clearly for good reason. Liberal columnists are one after another calling on him to step aside for the future of his party and the country. I don’t think that this is a preference cascade as much as the debate clearing up any doubts about how bad the situation is, and serving as a kind of Schelling Point for the idea that he needs to go.

My view has always been that he doesn’t step aside, and although last night increased the odds of him doing so somewhat, I’d still be surprised if Biden wasn’t on the ballot in November.¹ Fame and power are addictive. Ex-presidents are still of course famous, but they tend not to be salient in people’s minds, and being the center of attention is what power-seeking individuals find attractive. Everyone still knows who George Bush and Bill Clinton are (maybe some kids don’t?), but the average American might think of them once every three months rather than on a daily basis.

Recently I heard Obama narrating a nature show on Netflix, and while being a younger and more diverse David Attenborough may be fun compared to a normal job, it’s nothing like going to the G7 and talking with the leaders of France and Germany about what should happen to Ukraine. George W Bush in 2019 was appearing on a promotional poster playing second fiddle to the CEO of what’s been referred to as a “shady multilevel marketing company.” Humans are sensitive enough about status to feel every gradient of difference between adjacent levels of importance. The guy with 200K followers on X becomes consumed with the thought of what life would be like if he was as prominent as the influencer with 300K, even if people more and less prominent would place them both in the same bucket. Not everyone thinks like this; some are happy to make a fortune and then go off and enjoy a life of solitude in the woods. But those who seek high political office are not wired that way. The difference between president and ex-president is maybe Jeff Bezos returning your call in five minutes rather than a day. Most of us think it would be cool to talk to Bezos under any circumstances, but once you’ve been at the pinnacle of fame and power this feels like a major downgrade in status.

President is clearly a much better job than ex-president, but the thing about Biden is he’s not going to be a normal ex-president. He quits now, and a cloud of embarrassment is going to hang over him for the rest of his life. If it’s true that he’s lost a step, which he clearly has, there just aren’t many things left he can do to get enjoyment out of life. Starting a non-profit or think tank is highly unlikely. After not running again because he was too old and senile, nobody is going to buy the idea of Biden the institution builder. He doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who would’ve wanted to spend too much time writing a book even when he was younger. His voice can’t get him through a debate, so I doubt he will follow Obama’s path of narrating the stories of animals living in our national parks. Biden barely has the spend time with grandkids option, as he’s so old that all but two are adults already, one of them being only recently acknowledged.

The president has at most 15-25 years left on this earth. His energy and cognitive ability have already fallen drastically, and who knows how much longer he can even take care of himself. This means that he has two options. He can try to spend maybe half of the rest of his life as president of the United States, with betting markets still giving him about a one-third probability of winning if he stays in the race. Or he can drop out, and go home with nothing to do other than watch his body and mind slowly decay, which will happen anyway, but without the distraction and meaning one gets from having the coolest job in the world. The argument that Biden should drop out rests on him being old. But from his perspective, there is no better reason to hang on as long as possible.

1. To put a number on it, I’d say 85% chance he’s still the Democratic nominee on election day.