In politics, it is usually easy to think that things are going to continue on their current path. One exception to this general rule is the widespread sense that American politics and culture are going to change when Trump finally exits the scene. The right has been remade around his cult of personality, and the left too has spent a decade shaping itself around the actions and behavior of this one man. That means it is difficult to imagine politics not being significantly different when he leaves office in January 2029.
Trump has not simply changed the parties in terms of policy preferences and ideology. Rather, the man himself attracts certain kinds of voters and media figures that don’t define themselves primarily in terms of the right-left axis, while repelling others.
The vice president of a second term administration almost always gets his party’s nomination when he runs for president himself. This makes JD Vance the likely successor to Trump. Given the fact that he is loved by right-wing media and close to Silicon Valley elites, there is every reason to believe that he will be the 2028 Republican nominee.
The big question, then, is whether the 2024 Trump coalition – made up of Tech Bros, the Rogansphere, believers in non-mainstream health advice, and a disproportionate number of voters in crucial swing states – will hold under the leadership of Vance. This seems doubtful. Trumpism, as a cult of personality, cannot simply be bestowed on a successor like a transferable Mar-a-Lago membership card. Whatever political magic that Trump has, there is good reason to believe that Vance doesn’t.
To see an example of how this works in the popular discourse, consider a recent viral podcast in which Michael Knowles interviewed the influencer who goes by the name Clavicular. As a proponent of “looksmaxxing,” Clavicular talked about taking testosterone hormones while going through puberty, smashing his chin with a hammer so it would look more masculine after healing, and his plans to get double-jaw surgery. He is proudly apolitical, advocating that young men focus on self-improvement, though with a disproportionate share of that effort going towards bettering one’s physical appearance.
