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Austin Chen's avatar

Thanks for the shoutout! We've seen a spike in new users coming from your post, and a lot of betting activity on your markets (for the audience: you can find them grouped together at https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania).

The section on prediction calibration is a great explainer of some issues around evaluating how well a predictor did. In markets, you can output a return on investment, but that's just a single flat number (perhaps return at different time windows like 1y or 30d would also be instructive). We'd like to have something like Metaculus's calibration chart aggregating info from each trade placed or market set up; if anyone has ideas here, let me know!

Anyways, your commitment to bet on your beliefs really makes you stand out among the many political commentators out there. I hope that this post encourages your readers/colleagues to do the same!

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Jesusdidnothingwrong's avatar

It’s strange that people say you can’t reinforce fertility by money, when our whole civilisation functions by forcing people do what they don’t want by money incentive. Lyman Stocke gives example of Germany who gives 25$k per birth and raised fertility for 0,15 with it. But 25$k per birth is just 0,5% of yearly gdp. Why not throw something like 5%? Countries sometimes spent 5% of gdp or mire on defence, 10% or more on pensions. And fertility is important both for defence and (future) pensions and other questions aswell. If question is important 0,5% of gdp is not enough.

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