It's all about the base rate
More relevant for Biden's longevity is that his own father died at 86, meaning that he himself maybe has a 50-50 chance of dying by the end of his second term. The most relevant parallel here is LBJ, who commissioned an actuarial study on himself that showed he would die near the end of his second term, before deciding to drop out of the race.
If Biden did not have both terrible polls and a questionable actuarial forecast, then I would agree with you, but the closest historical parallel that we have indicates he may not win the nomination again.
You made a very persuasive case for Biden being the favorite for the Democrat nomination. I’m still not convinced that Trump is the favorite over DeSantis, though.
The fact that he’s running almost even with Trump despite far lower name recognition is one tell. Also, he’d kill Trump in debates. You know why? Because he won’t attack him for mean tweets or January 6 or any of that other “defending democracy” nonsense that RINOs and the media care about. He’ll attack him for letting Kim Kardashian trick him into signing a soft-on-crime bill, he’ll attack him for hiring establishment Republican staffers who undermined him, and he’ll especially attack him for not firing Anthony Fauci. Trump hasn’t been hit like that before, and the Republican electorate hasn’t seen him hit like that before.
This isn’t some cope: I supported Trump early on and voted for him twice. But I’m ready to move on from him as long as we don’t move back to Romney and Cheney, and I think that’s where most normie Republicans are too. DeSantis provides that opportunity.
So I’m putting my money in Biden vs. DeSantis.
I’m surprised you didn’t identify Michelle Obama as a potential Democrat nominee.
Election betting odds now favor DeSantis over Trump. I think that's closer to the mark than you on this. I think Trump owes a lot of his support from the fact that everyone knows everyone else supports him. If there's a sense that he's being overtaken by DeSantis in popularity, I think a lot of people will change allegiances for that reason alone.
I'm curious what you think of the likelihood of Trump running as an independent if he loses the primary (and what effect that'll have). Strangely, Trump is still much more likely to win the presidency than DeSantis, according to the odds, even though DeSantis is both favored in the primary and in electability. I wondered if that's just an inconsistency in the betting market or reflects an expectation that Trump will be a spoiler if he loses the GOP primary.
A major problem is the lack of ability to trade on margin. As I understand it, for the moon landing contract you're paying $0.92 today, and are paid $1 on Jan 1, 2025 (assuming the market resolves to No). That's a 3.4% annual return! You shouldn't buy this contract even if you're 100% sure.
The most likely reasons for Biden to not be the nominee are 1) he feels old and tired and doesn’t want to and 2) he faces polling suggesting humiliating defeat. The first is mostly unanswerable but we might be able to get some estimates from looking at late career retirements in the entertainment and business careers data. What percentage of producers and CEOs working at 80 are still working at 82? The second we could get better estimates of from the larger sample of gubernatorial elections. Blanco (LA), Shumlin (VT), and Paterson (NY) are some recent examples of unpopular governors that chose to to run for reelection. I agree that the presidency is a bigger prize and president Biden has a bigger ego than the average governor, supporting a lower chance than a governor in a similar situation, but expecting to lose is a great reason not to run.
It's only missing the prediction market Futuur, it works with real money (crypto), and they have a wide range of markets, more than 10.000