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Permanent Democratic Majority?

Permanent Democratic Majority?

Winning elections, and the "median personality theorem"

I discuss the Republican primary in New Hampshire last night, widely considered to have been for most practical purposes the end of the campaign.

Last week, I talked about Bullying Grandma Syndrome, which explains why Trump has and continues to dominate the Republican Party. Haley’s relatively strong performance with Democrats and Independents last night brings to mind another dynamic, which is how the current Republican Party relates to the wider electorate. Many people aren’t content to get bullied by senile grandmas forever. They end up leaving the party, and this is why we’re seeing an exodus of more educated voters from the GOP.

In politics, there’s something called the “median voter theorem.” I think that while there is something to this idea, the best explanation for why moderate candidates tend to win is that they have personalities that are more appealing to wide swaths of the public. Watching Trump and Haley supporters, it seems to me that Republicans really don’t understand the most important contrast between them, which is that one group is composed of people who might be your neighbors or family friends while the other is a collection of the elderly relatives who you have to put up with during holidays but otherwise do everything to avoid.

I also discuss why I’m less bullish on Trump’s chances of winning the general election than a few weeks ago, his diminishing mental capacity, and why the combination of the abortion issue and Republicans generally being seen as the party of weirdos means we may be entering an era of Democratic dominance.


NBC exit poll on NH

TracingWoodgrains on the Republican Party being doomed

Interviews with Haley voters

Trump being senile, confusing Nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi

Trump supporter with bad hip fantasizing about civil war

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Richard Hanania's Newsletter
Clown Car
Discussion of politics and current events, with a special focus on the 2024 election.
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