Note: I’ll be livestreaming throughout the day tomorrow, as is becoming my Election Day tradition. Check the Substack app or Notes to stay up to date. For those interested, here is my California ballot. The most important things for Californians are to vote Ben Allen for insurance commissioner, no on Prop 40, and yes on Prop 41 and Prop 42. Nationwide, I recommend voting Democrat for the House and Senate except in highly unusual cases. For state and local races, make your best judgment based on who is more pro-market, less populist, and less conspiratorial, with bonus points for not wanting to cooperate with ICE.
Polling seems like a mundane profession, but its day-to-day practice is useful for understanding some of the most fundamental ideas in statistics.