Remember when Ted Cruz personally blocked U.S. visas for the anti-CCP Hong Kong protestors? I'm right there with you on the wishful thinking Allred bandwagon.
I actually agree with you that this one was a bad call on Cruz’ part.
Besides taking potshots on personal/taste grounds, I defy you to find a whole lot of others, if your views are classical liberal, let alone conservative. Besides the obvious one on abortion, or the Richard one on the desirability of illegal immigration.
Regarding the odds of certification on Jan 6th, one factor not in your analysis is the various county boards of elections - key counties, in swing states - that are now controlled by MAGAts, or where changes in state law now give them the ability to hold up the certification process. Georgia is the obvious outlier that you mention, but there are many others (see: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-swing-state-officials-election-deniers-1235069692/ , or the database at https://publicwise.org/election-threat-index/ ). Many only hold sway in very red counties, but the list most notably includes the chair and vice-chair of the WI state election commission. And it wouldn't take many of them gumming up the works in litigation for 6 weeks to delay a swing state past the Dec 14th electoral college deadline, giving rise to a wider array of potential objections on Jan 6th.
The 10-18% odds of a delay past Jan 6th that were given at time of writing seem fair to me - I'm certainly not very high-confidence in any number meaningfully below that.
Something to consider. But this article on what's going on in Arizona convinces me that the state has a lot of options to exert their will on local officials.
Note that Arizona has all its statewide elected officials as Democrats. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all have Democratic governors, and Michigan Democrats have complete control.
I think that courts hurry to decide these cases quickly too, obviously the presidential election goes to the top of the docket. Bush v Gore was decided on December 12, and all the Trump challenges were dispensed with in time in 2020.
Then again, I just looked up the Wisconsin legislature, and didn't realize it was so overwhelmingly Republican.
Maybe I should write an article on which swing states MAGA would be in the best position to steal.
Kudos to Richard for acknowledging that his hatred of clearly Elite Human Capital Ted Cruz is emotional and irrational, not logical.
The nerve of Cruz to maintain political ambition and desire to win elections! The gall to not be Liz Cheney and immolate his own political career. I mean, this is MUCH worse than not standing up to pro-Hamas antisemites in one’s own party, obviously.
Given that with a handful of notable exceptions (illegal immigration, early term abortions, e.g.) Cruz almost surely agrees with more of Richard’s policy goals than any Democrat in Congress, Richard’s clearly visceral hatred of Cruz is irrational indeed.
Why are supposed shenanigans in Troup, Ware, and Spalding counties in GA considered a smoking gun of MAGA stealing the election, but supposed shenanigans in Fulton and DeKalb counties not similarly indicting of the Dems?
This whole discussion sounds like QAnon vs BlueAnon and fanning over one's preferred conspiracies.
Also keep in mind that the GA GOP statewide elected officials are no friends of Trump. Does the name Brad Raffensperger ring a bell? Also Brian Kemp, AG Chris Carr, and others?
Kemp has gone so far as to set up a non-MAGA shadow GOP in GA, waiting until the time is right to sweep up the mess.
There's a 0% chance democracy fails to survive this election. It's a sign of being caught up in US Democratic propaganda to think otherwise.
But I agree it's a bet worth making for Trump to win the popular vote and lose the EC. It's not outside the polling margin of error and fits the way demographic partisanship is changing.
On the other hand, the Musk/Trump get out the vote tactic isn't much designed to support that, even if it is either genius or completely stupid, and therefore probably what the election hinges on.
"What kind of man does this? Perhaps one who listens to Trump call his wife ugly and then spends the next nine years on his knees treating him like Jesus in lockstep with the rest of the party. What worms these people are."
This is not even the most amazing example of Cruz' ridiculous kowtowing to Trump. Don't forget that Trump said Cruz was Lee Harvey Oswald's good buddy:
Calling people you dislike "worms", declaring that it's "fun" to "indulge in hatred"... THIS is the behavior of "High Human Capital"?
I never liked Ted Cruz even when I held my nose and voted for him to beat Trump in the Primary, he's absolutely got that slimy "used car salesman" vibe and Trump's tagging him with "Lyin' Ted Cruz" stuck because it fit the flip flopper, but...
The irony of you getting on your moral high horse and dehumanizing ANYONE at this point reads like the opening scenes in a Greek tragedy of hubris, starring yourself. Careful, your bigotry is showing again.
One thing you haven’t mentioned is using predeiction markets to hedge against bad outcomes in the real world. For example. If I buy Harris winning the election with Polymarket’s discounted odds, I could use winnings to cover the likely rise in my taxes (about $4k a year), and if the bet loses, then I avoided a Harris administration.
I wonder what other negative outcomes can be hedged by by betting on them in prediction markets when the odds make sense to do so.
Being at 4% in the certifying the election by January 6th and you LITERALY acknolwedge that the last election wasn't certified on January 6th is rather weird. These stuff tends to be highly autocorrelated. You can imagine an extensive debate at the floor that makes Congress to certify by the 7th. The House took weeks to pick a Speaker (twice!) this legislature, it's so easy to imagine Congress finishing the certification late into the night.
As I explain, you had a storming of the Capitol and that barely went into January 7 by a few hours after a six hour recess. I listed reasons why we won’t have a repeat and there won’t even be a storming this time. The House speaker thing isn’t a good reference, because this depends on the whole House not a small Republican majority acting in unison. I’m confident in this, so come bet.
Remember when Ted Cruz personally blocked U.S. visas for the anti-CCP Hong Kong protestors? I'm right there with you on the wishful thinking Allred bandwagon.
https://reason.com/volokh/2020/12/21/ted-cruzs-terrible-case-for-keeping-out-hong-kong-refugees/
I actually agree with you that this one was a bad call on Cruz’ part.
Besides taking potshots on personal/taste grounds, I defy you to find a whole lot of others, if your views are classical liberal, let alone conservative. Besides the obvious one on abortion, or the Richard one on the desirability of illegal immigration.
Regarding the odds of certification on Jan 6th, one factor not in your analysis is the various county boards of elections - key counties, in swing states - that are now controlled by MAGAts, or where changes in state law now give them the ability to hold up the certification process. Georgia is the obvious outlier that you mention, but there are many others (see: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-swing-state-officials-election-deniers-1235069692/ , or the database at https://publicwise.org/election-threat-index/ ). Many only hold sway in very red counties, but the list most notably includes the chair and vice-chair of the WI state election commission. And it wouldn't take many of them gumming up the works in litigation for 6 weeks to delay a swing state past the Dec 14th electoral college deadline, giving rise to a wider array of potential objections on Jan 6th.
The 10-18% odds of a delay past Jan 6th that were given at time of writing seem fair to me - I'm certainly not very high-confidence in any number meaningfully below that.
Something to consider. But this article on what's going on in Arizona convinces me that the state has a lot of options to exert their will on local officials.
https://www.votebeat.org/arizona/2024/09/30/arizona-counties-forced-certify-despite-federal-court-ruling/
Note that Arizona has all its statewide elected officials as Democrats. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all have Democratic governors, and Michigan Democrats have complete control.
I think that courts hurry to decide these cases quickly too, obviously the presidential election goes to the top of the docket. Bush v Gore was decided on December 12, and all the Trump challenges were dispensed with in time in 2020.
Then again, I just looked up the Wisconsin legislature, and didn't realize it was so overwhelmingly Republican.
Maybe I should write an article on which swing states MAGA would be in the best position to steal.
Kudos to Richard for acknowledging that his hatred of clearly Elite Human Capital Ted Cruz is emotional and irrational, not logical.
The nerve of Cruz to maintain political ambition and desire to win elections! The gall to not be Liz Cheney and immolate his own political career. I mean, this is MUCH worse than not standing up to pro-Hamas antisemites in one’s own party, obviously.
Given that with a handful of notable exceptions (illegal immigration, early term abortions, e.g.) Cruz almost surely agrees with more of Richard’s policy goals than any Democrat in Congress, Richard’s clearly visceral hatred of Cruz is irrational indeed.
Why are supposed shenanigans in Troup, Ware, and Spalding counties in GA considered a smoking gun of MAGA stealing the election, but supposed shenanigans in Fulton and DeKalb counties not similarly indicting of the Dems?
This whole discussion sounds like QAnon vs BlueAnon and fanning over one's preferred conspiracies.
Also keep in mind that the GA GOP statewide elected officials are no friends of Trump. Does the name Brad Raffensperger ring a bell? Also Brian Kemp, AG Chris Carr, and others?
Kemp has gone so far as to set up a non-MAGA shadow GOP in GA, waiting until the time is right to sweep up the mess.
There's a 0% chance democracy fails to survive this election. It's a sign of being caught up in US Democratic propaganda to think otherwise.
But I agree it's a bet worth making for Trump to win the popular vote and lose the EC. It's not outside the polling margin of error and fits the way demographic partisanship is changing.
On the other hand, the Musk/Trump get out the vote tactic isn't much designed to support that, even if it is either genius or completely stupid, and therefore probably what the election hinges on.
"What kind of man does this? Perhaps one who listens to Trump call his wife ugly and then spends the next nine years on his knees treating him like Jesus in lockstep with the rest of the party. What worms these people are."
This is not even the most amazing example of Cruz' ridiculous kowtowing to Trump. Don't forget that Trump said Cruz was Lee Harvey Oswald's good buddy:
https://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/trump-ted-cruz-father-222730
I used to imagine Cruz was a conservative intellectual. Boy, was I wrong.
Calling people you dislike "worms", declaring that it's "fun" to "indulge in hatred"... THIS is the behavior of "High Human Capital"?
I never liked Ted Cruz even when I held my nose and voted for him to beat Trump in the Primary, he's absolutely got that slimy "used car salesman" vibe and Trump's tagging him with "Lyin' Ted Cruz" stuck because it fit the flip flopper, but...
The irony of you getting on your moral high horse and dehumanizing ANYONE at this point reads like the opening scenes in a Greek tragedy of hubris, starring yourself. Careful, your bigotry is showing again.
One thing you haven’t mentioned is using predeiction markets to hedge against bad outcomes in the real world. For example. If I buy Harris winning the election with Polymarket’s discounted odds, I could use winnings to cover the likely rise in my taxes (about $4k a year), and if the bet loses, then I avoided a Harris administration.
I wonder what other negative outcomes can be hedged by by betting on them in prediction markets when the odds make sense to do so.
Being at 4% in the certifying the election by January 6th and you LITERALY acknolwedge that the last election wasn't certified on January 6th is rather weird. These stuff tends to be highly autocorrelated. You can imagine an extensive debate at the floor that makes Congress to certify by the 7th. The House took weeks to pick a Speaker (twice!) this legislature, it's so easy to imagine Congress finishing the certification late into the night.
As I explain, you had a storming of the Capitol and that barely went into January 7 by a few hours after a six hour recess. I listed reasons why we won’t have a repeat and there won’t even be a storming this time. The House speaker thing isn’t a good reference, because this depends on the whole House not a small Republican majority acting in unison. I’m confident in this, so come bet.