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Arctotherium's avatar

Excellent convo. Hsu is one of the smartest generalist bloggers on the internet, with impressive real-world accomplishments to boot.

Much less bullish then you are on Chinese fertility. Many governments going back to the Roman Empire have tried to raise fertility, including almost all developed countries to some extent in the past few decades. France has been trying since the 1920s IIRC. Some of them have managed to squeeze out a few tenths of a point of TFR, but nothing dramatic. Even highly-competent govts like Singapore haven't been able to do better. Only Israel combines an urban, wealthy, high-tech society with above-replacement fertility, and while the CCP is clearly highly capable and willing to do unusual things, I doubt a mass conversion to Orthodox Judaism is in the cards (would be hilarious though). If the Manospherians are correct that patriarchy is the prime determinant of fertility, very hard for the CCP, which has been ideologically feminist since its inception, to walk that back (and a shrinking, male-dominated young population gives young women enormous power from simple supply and demand, making it even harder). If religion, hard for the officially atheist CCP to deal with that either. Economics and nationalism historically can give a few tenths of a point of TFR, but not enough to dig the PRC out of "lowest low" fertility. My prediction is China goes down the same demographic route as S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Easily the biggest headwind for medium-term Chinese dominance, although every other major country (except Israel - blessed by G-d!) has similar trends, so relative power is less affected.

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Tom Grey's avatar

Great post/ discussion.

If China really is able to maintain a meritocracy in its Chinese National Communist (=fascist) economy, and military, it will continue to increase in formidability. It seems that Xi has become a "fuhrer", a semi-God emperor - but will he attack Taiwan too soon? Or ever?

If no attack, when and how is the next succession? One huge advantage of democracies is changing their leaders peacefully. Deng started 30 years of that in China, but it looks like Xi is ending it - isn't he leader for life, now?

A "China as paper tiger" take is here:

https://unherd.com/2022/02/the-myth-of-chinese-supremacy/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=5948350043

Neither the positive here nor the negative there include the factoid about some never-occupied modern apartments being torn down in China sue to sub-standard construction. In USSR dominated Europe, lousy building was endemic. We won't know for years, decades, how common it really has been in the last decades of China's astounding growth.

IVF babies seem unlikely to be 10% of Chinese babies for the next 10, nor 20, years. I can easily imagine poor Uyghur or Tibeten women becoming surrogate mothers for (spoiled?) Chinese career women unwilling to bear more than their first child, if even that. In the hundreds, even the thousands. But not millions.

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