No single figure determines the course of a culture. But I believe that Donald Trump matters a lot more than people think. He can’t explain 100% of American politics over the last ten years, but I do think that he, as an individual, can maybe explain 60% of the vibes. That’s obviously a lot for one man.
Most intellectuals tend to prefer more structural theories. Globalization, capitalism, and the state of technology are pointed to as explanations for political developments. These things obviously matter. Yet with the benefit of hindsight, we can often look back and see how one individual can have an outsized influence. World War II is unthinkable without Hitler, whose unique charisma and appetite for risk brought the Nazis to power, and whose radical instincts in foreign policy were opposed at key moments by his own generals. Stephen Kotkin in his biographies of Stalin has shown how the Soviet dictator’s ideological radicalism was behind the purges under his regime and the ruthless drive toward collectivization.
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Trump has probably had about as much influence on the politics and culture of an advanced democracy as a single individual possibly can. It’s often been remarked on how he has shifted Republican views on topics like Vladimir Putin and free trade, and how in general he has made the GOP more downscale and working-class, though outside of trade and immigration actual Republican policies have not changed as much as the rhetoric might suggest.
