The Village and the River: Synthesis or Coming War?

Review of "On the Edge" by Nate Silver

I listened to Nate Silver’s On the Edge on audiobook, which is the format I recommend because he reads it himself and does very funny impressions of the people he’s interviewing. There is a problem in some other audiobooks where the narrator reads quotations in a flat voice, and you sometimes can’t even be sure where they begin or end. Here, you can tell when Silver is quoting a scrawny EA nerd or an old casino magnate with a raspy voice like Steve Wynn. Sometimes you hear either contempt or admiration when he’s mocking the subjects of the book, though this is always open to interpretation. On the Edge is to a large extent a book of interviews and personal profiles, so the performance aspect of the audio version adds quite a bit.

The book covers a wide range of topics, including AI risk, Effective Altruism, poker, sports gambling, the history of Las Vegas, nuclear deterrence, and a lot more. Silver’s central idea is that there is a growing divide between the Village and the River. The first group represents the established institutions of society. They are conformist and risk averse, but also somewhat responsible. The River is full of people who think in more probabilistic terms. This includes gamblers and the industries catering to their demands, venture capitalists, and crypto bros. Rationalists and Effective Altruists also qualify. Residents of the River like to take risks, are more megalomaniacal, and more likely to either accomplish great things or destroy the world.