Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Contarini's avatar

Historically Russia was waged seemingly inept wars, typically botched at the outset (1914, 1941, First Chechen War). They either eventually win by bulldozing their opponent, after mobilizing their huge human and material resources (1945, Second Chechen War), or give up when the country is in an actual (1905, 1917) or nascent (1856) revolt. Russia has fought against much more powerful enemies and alliances for much longer than a few weeks on many occasions. The idea that Putin will get bored or decide it was all a mistake and go home, or give up because of economic sanctions, is not especially convincing, though, as you say, who knows? Still, the smart bet would be that Russia, having jumped into this thing, will wage it to a favorable conclusion, even at what foreigners would consider to be stupid and excessive cost. That's their way.

Expand full comment
Lee Bressler's avatar

There is a meme that circulates periodically about how ppl pivot from being an "expert" on X to being an expert on Y (virology to Russia or something). https://ifunny.co/tags/slowik is a good example.

It has always struck me as silly. It's not expertise - it's critical reasoning, which allows for an intelligent person to study and have an opinion about a variety of topics. We all know that "expertise" is quite often useless or worse.

I think you make a really good and humble point here - you can read and learn - and then form an opinion, while still acknowledging that it may not be a perfect forecast. You don't have to be the tire guy. You can read what the tire guy says and then incorporate it into your mental model.

Expand full comment
80 more comments...

No posts