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Prediction Markets

Everything having to do with forecasting and prediction markets, with the goal of acheiving intellectual accountability
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Why I'm Suing the Federal Government over PredictIt
On September 9, a group of investors trading on PredictIt and academics that study its data, along with its technology provider Aristotle International…
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Richard Hanania
4
Finally, Real Money
It's all about the base rate
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Richard Hanania
17
Why Forecasting War is Hard
The tire guy has become famous among those following the war in Ukraine closely for the following thread. He argued that the Russian convoy north of…
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Richard Hanania
88
Lessons from Forecasting the Ukraine War
Given that I’ve made quite a few predictions about the war in Ukraine and how it would unfold, it’s a good time look back on them and draw some lessons…
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Richard Hanania
121
Fertility as the Final Boss in Chinese Development, and Richard Hanania Prediction Markets
Predictions, January 2022
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Richard Hanania
37
Futarchy: Robin Hanson on How Prediction Markets Can Take over the World
Transcript of interview
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Richard Hanania
2
Predictions, Spring 2021
Intellectual honesty, and why Trump will be the 2024 nominee
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Richard Hanania
4
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