Why not just rely more on guest workers ? Guest workers improve the economy, but don't change the culture given that they are there only for a limited amount of time, if they commit a crime they can be deported much more easily (since they have a home back at their home country ), they have no rights to welfare, and can't vote. The one issue I foresee is the problem of their children being born in the U.S. which would result in them getting citizenship, to my knowledge this is a big part of how the massive German guest worker program from Turkey ended up changing the demographics of the county once they allowed for birthright citizenship. Maybe there's a way around that ?
Terrible idea for the reason you hinted at. I would argue that it is actually cruel and immoral to deny the children birthright citizenship, which means denying someone citizenship of the only country they’ve ever known. You can create a situation where even 3rd generation immigrants are not citizens and a permanent second class. Guest workers also have little incentive to make lasting investments in the country, start businesses, etc.
The problem with Guest workers is you are basically hiring someone, training them for few years and you let them go. This works in Agriculture and Service industry but its a headache to hire someone every 3 years because the previously trained person has to go back and will not return.
This gets worse with skilled labor as you are teaching them ins and outs of your manufacturing and engineering systems and 3/6 years later you just send them home, so they learn everything from our architecture and infra and can use that knowledge back home with a competitor.
Training and learning are the most time consuming part of any job and has the highest ROI, you train a new worker good and they will increase the productivity, so you take up the burden of training them efficiently and 6 years later you send a polished worker home to work efficiently for your competitor will all the skills you invested in.
The keyhole solution idea sounds great in theory but it is not very credible in practice. Reagan's 1986 amnesty deal was basically an attempt at a keyhole bargain. The Democrats were happy to take the amnesty and then de facto renege on the restrictions once they got in power. A large pool of immigrants creates a latent "pot of gold" of potential voters that becomes too tempting to pass up for the political party that expects a net electoral benefit from regularizing illegals and expediting the citizenship pipeline. Over time the welfare restrictions get relaxed, interior deportations become infrequent even for criminals due to local non-cooperation (sanctuary cities) and high cost, and the requirement to learn the language gets watered down or abolished.
For the keyhole solution to be viable it would have to effectively be written in stone through a constitutional amendment that provides standing to sue to all states and to individual voters through a private right of action (to prevent future de facto executive nullification). Illegals must be given a lifetime ban on ever getting the ability to vote in elections of any level (even municipal elections). Company executuves that knowingly hire illegal or out-of-status workers must be given long mandatory minimum prison sentences. The constitutional amendment would also need a clause that forces all government and police officials to cooperate with legal immigration enforcement efforts upon threat of personally going to prison (a ban on sanctuary locales that has teeth). Otherwise the keyhole restrictions would die a slow death of many silent compromises.
Former pro-migration guy here, who recently got flipped by arguments/stats about electoral dynamics, crime, culture, social trust, and state security. More posts like this, please. I’ve scrolled past almost all your recent posts since they deal with economic arguments against migration (which I never believed), but now that you’re dealing with the actual reasons why nonmorons question conventional border policies, you’ve caught my attention!
Keyhole solutions are only rational, if one can trust the people who sell them. It's kind of obvious that the political left will disregard the no-welfare clause and no-voting rights clause because (a) poor migrants need tons of welfare and (b) they will vote for the party that provides them with tons of welfare. As with taxes on companies that employ foreigners - let's say a 50% employment surcharge - that will also ONLY work if there is no hidden social welfare support for the dependents.
Filter them in or filter them out? I think Obama Democrats want to filter them in... That's exactly what's so wrong with the keyhole approach. Everybody asked in 2020 would have said that Biden is going to rule from the center. Well, that was then...
I don't think you can really argue that to a child born to a guest worker it's "the only country they have ever known." A guest worker visa should be short, 3 years maximum. Realistically even if you get your wife pregnant the moment you get in U.S. soil, the child will literally not even remember America when they go back home.
I don't see how you would end up with a 3rd generation immigrant under a guest worker system. When the visa is up you have to return to your country.
You've broken RSS with your email gating of content so I’ve stopped reading your blog. I am telling you this as RSS is still a popular method of consuming blogs so maybe you’ll reconsider.
Why not just rely more on guest workers ? Guest workers improve the economy, but don't change the culture given that they are there only for a limited amount of time, if they commit a crime they can be deported much more easily (since they have a home back at their home country ), they have no rights to welfare, and can't vote. The one issue I foresee is the problem of their children being born in the U.S. which would result in them getting citizenship, to my knowledge this is a big part of how the massive German guest worker program from Turkey ended up changing the demographics of the county once they allowed for birthright citizenship. Maybe there's a way around that ?
Terrible idea for the reason you hinted at. I would argue that it is actually cruel and immoral to deny the children birthright citizenship, which means denying someone citizenship of the only country they’ve ever known. You can create a situation where even 3rd generation immigrants are not citizens and a permanent second class. Guest workers also have little incentive to make lasting investments in the country, start businesses, etc.
Thank you. I was looking for arguments why keyholes don't work, and you give a very lucid account of why they don't work.
I wrote a response to you but I am on mobile and for some reason it got posted as a seperate comment. I'd be interested in your reply
The problem with Guest workers is you are basically hiring someone, training them for few years and you let them go. This works in Agriculture and Service industry but its a headache to hire someone every 3 years because the previously trained person has to go back and will not return.
This gets worse with skilled labor as you are teaching them ins and outs of your manufacturing and engineering systems and 3/6 years later you just send them home, so they learn everything from our architecture and infra and can use that knowledge back home with a competitor.
Training and learning are the most time consuming part of any job and has the highest ROI, you train a new worker good and they will increase the productivity, so you take up the burden of training them efficiently and 6 years later you send a polished worker home to work efficiently for your competitor will all the skills you invested in.
In the end, almost all Turkish guest workers became naturalized German citizens. At the same time, PISA numbers for Germany are collapsing...
If only people were as rational as B Caplan indeed...
The keyhole solution idea sounds great in theory but it is not very credible in practice. Reagan's 1986 amnesty deal was basically an attempt at a keyhole bargain. The Democrats were happy to take the amnesty and then de facto renege on the restrictions once they got in power. A large pool of immigrants creates a latent "pot of gold" of potential voters that becomes too tempting to pass up for the political party that expects a net electoral benefit from regularizing illegals and expediting the citizenship pipeline. Over time the welfare restrictions get relaxed, interior deportations become infrequent even for criminals due to local non-cooperation (sanctuary cities) and high cost, and the requirement to learn the language gets watered down or abolished.
For the keyhole solution to be viable it would have to effectively be written in stone through a constitutional amendment that provides standing to sue to all states and to individual voters through a private right of action (to prevent future de facto executive nullification). Illegals must be given a lifetime ban on ever getting the ability to vote in elections of any level (even municipal elections). Company executuves that knowingly hire illegal or out-of-status workers must be given long mandatory minimum prison sentences. The constitutional amendment would also need a clause that forces all government and police officials to cooperate with legal immigration enforcement efforts upon threat of personally going to prison (a ban on sanctuary locales that has teeth). Otherwise the keyhole restrictions would die a slow death of many silent compromises.
Former pro-migration guy here, who recently got flipped by arguments/stats about electoral dynamics, crime, culture, social trust, and state security. More posts like this, please. I’ve scrolled past almost all your recent posts since they deal with economic arguments against migration (which I never believed), but now that you’re dealing with the actual reasons why nonmorons question conventional border policies, you’ve caught my attention!
Keyhole solutions are only rational, if one can trust the people who sell them. It's kind of obvious that the political left will disregard the no-welfare clause and no-voting rights clause because (a) poor migrants need tons of welfare and (b) they will vote for the party that provides them with tons of welfare. As with taxes on companies that employ foreigners - let's say a 50% employment surcharge - that will also ONLY work if there is no hidden social welfare support for the dependents.
Is there any keyhole solution for cultural issues? Any way to filter out the people who think we deserved 9/11 and so forth?
Filter them in or filter them out? I think Obama Democrats want to filter them in... That's exactly what's so wrong with the keyhole approach. Everybody asked in 2020 would have said that Biden is going to rule from the center. Well, that was then...
I don't think you can really argue that to a child born to a guest worker it's "the only country they have ever known." A guest worker visa should be short, 3 years maximum. Realistically even if you get your wife pregnant the moment you get in U.S. soil, the child will literally not even remember America when they go back home.
I don't see how you would end up with a 3rd generation immigrant under a guest worker system. When the visa is up you have to return to your country.
You've broken RSS with your email gating of content so I’ve stopped reading your blog. I am telling you this as RSS is still a popular method of consuming blogs so maybe you’ll reconsider.