on young, Black, Harvard professor looking for truth.
China's "political correctness" is more likely to be sucking up to Xi or other administrators. That could be stronger than US wokeism; tho possibly weaker.
Russian war analysts were asked about a "hypothetical" Russian invasion, so of course they were wildly, patriotically optimistic about how easy any invasion would be -- because to be cautionary would have likely cost them their jobs.
Meritocracy and truth are most important when there are actual results.
This was a great talk, extra thanks for transcript!
Economist Kling liked Steve's 2008 experiences with economists - who didn't know about MBS & CDS, but were willing to pontificate about the crisis to an even more ignorant news media.
Guys like Karlin have their own blindspots. In this case, he misunderstands/misunderstood Ukrainian society, its people. He also seems to think that Russian language speakers in Ukraine are Russians or at least pro-Russia.
It is not true. The first language of president Zelensky is Russian, the first language of Poroshenko (former president) is Russian. In fact, for 30 years all presidents and prime ministers of Ukraine have been Russian speakers. My rough estimate for the current Ukrainian parliament is that 90% or even more of their members have the Russian language as their first language. Maidan 2014 was 99% Russian language. I was there back then and very-very rarely heard the Ukrainian language.
Another example. I was in Chernigiv a month ago, which is a city north of Kyiv, now surrounded by Russian forces. I left a week before the 100%started. 100% Russian-speaking city. I met with guys from their territorial defense units. All Russian speakers, but what did they say: fuck Putin, fuck Russia, etc.
Last fall I was in Odessa, another 100% Russian-speaking city. Anecdotally of course, but my impression, that all people who matter in Odesa are "pro-Ukraine, pro-West" and if you try to find "pro-Russia" then these are old retired people and even in their cases it is mostly Soviet nostalgia, but not "I love Russia, please help us".
I am trying to say that Ukrainian identity is not based on language and guys like Karlin miss it. They seem to think that Russian speakers of Ukraine are pro-Russia or even Russians. This is not true. And that's why all this forced assimilation talk you write, is nonsense. Lawmakers of Ukraine, bureaucrats, members of the cabinet, etc - they are are Russian speakers and they are forcefully assimilating who? Themselves?
Of course, in case of war it does not matter if Russian-speakers are actually in danger in Ukraine or you just believe it. If Russian nationalists believe it (even if it is not real), then invasion will happen. But if actual military planners believe it, it may lead to mistakes: we will just show up and Kharkiv, Kyiv, most of Ukraine greets us with roses and flags and everything will be over after couple of days.
Btw, your interpretation of Russian language media is BS. Ukraine is basically a bilingual country and its media is already bilingual, trying to reach people of both languages. I guess there are some marginal outlets only in Russian, but for most of the media this specific law changes little.
TV stations that were shut were owned by Medvechuk. The Godfather of Medvechuk´s daughter is Putin, Medvechuk himself is a business partner of Belorussian president Lukashenko, Medvechuk supported the invasion of Crimea, the invasion of Donbas. They should have closed these stations earlier, the country is in war since 2014 and to keep these stations alive was insane. I do not know what was going on. Maybe it was corruption(so typical to Ukraine) or maybe they thought that Medvechuk can be mediator with Kreml, whatever.
Fascinating ending problem on short versus long term benefits. Is it really "a matter of personal preference"? The right tail physicists make their decisions in a very particular economic setting one peculiar to a particular time and culture--a tiny lab within a huge bureaucracy by a global demand for US debt. Economists understand the benefits and costs of individual decisions in a Arrow-Debreu economy, but who can say anything about the net benefits--long or short term--of individual decisions in a debt-funded bureaucratic setting?
Re gradation and whether genius matters or if instead the collective scientific enterprise is more important: it seems to depend on whether we are blocked by problems where collective efforts are additive or not. In a case where there is a discrete challenge such that one can’t make incremental progress towards its solution, we need someone to simply find the result. If the problem is difficult, we may need a genius to pull it off. On the other hand there can be problems whose solutions can be worked out via small steps, each accessible to mere mortals.
I will comment on that very interesting conversation later this week: I am working on some medical issues for my family right now. I meant to comment when it was first posted: I have thought at length about assimilation which is a while seemingly an unsexy way of saying absorption of the cultural norms and traditions relating to IQ. especially here in Fairfax with the controversy about TJ High School, the science and stem school which I am interested in because the school systems are under such scrutiny now: with good reason. Steven Hsu sounds like he is also working out his life in a good direction.
I appreciate the transcript. Probably wouldn't have had the time for a full listen but enjoyed the read. Thanks!
Really enjoyed this conversation! Feel free to bring Hsu on anytime to talk IQ stuff. So great
See https://glennloury.substack.com/p/the-truth-about-roland-fryer?s=r
on young, Black, Harvard professor looking for truth.
China's "political correctness" is more likely to be sucking up to Xi or other administrators. That could be stronger than US wokeism; tho possibly weaker.
Russian war analysts were asked about a "hypothetical" Russian invasion, so of course they were wildly, patriotically optimistic about how easy any invasion would be -- because to be cautionary would have likely cost them their jobs.
Meritocracy and truth are most important when there are actual results.
This was a great talk, extra thanks for transcript!
See also https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/keeping-up-with-the-fits-321?s=r
Economist Kling liked Steve's 2008 experiences with economists - who didn't know about MBS & CDS, but were willing to pontificate about the crisis to an even more ignorant news media.
Guys like Karlin have their own blindspots. In this case, he misunderstands/misunderstood Ukrainian society, its people. He also seems to think that Russian language speakers in Ukraine are Russians or at least pro-Russia.
It is not true. The first language of president Zelensky is Russian, the first language of Poroshenko (former president) is Russian. In fact, for 30 years all presidents and prime ministers of Ukraine have been Russian speakers. My rough estimate for the current Ukrainian parliament is that 90% or even more of their members have the Russian language as their first language. Maidan 2014 was 99% Russian language. I was there back then and very-very rarely heard the Ukrainian language.
Another example. I was in Chernigiv a month ago, which is a city north of Kyiv, now surrounded by Russian forces. I left a week before the 100%started. 100% Russian-speaking city. I met with guys from their territorial defense units. All Russian speakers, but what did they say: fuck Putin, fuck Russia, etc.
Last fall I was in Odessa, another 100% Russian-speaking city. Anecdotally of course, but my impression, that all people who matter in Odesa are "pro-Ukraine, pro-West" and if you try to find "pro-Russia" then these are old retired people and even in their cases it is mostly Soviet nostalgia, but not "I love Russia, please help us".
I am trying to say that Ukrainian identity is not based on language and guys like Karlin miss it. They seem to think that Russian speakers of Ukraine are pro-Russia or even Russians. This is not true. And that's why all this forced assimilation talk you write, is nonsense. Lawmakers of Ukraine, bureaucrats, members of the cabinet, etc - they are are Russian speakers and they are forcefully assimilating who? Themselves?
Of course, in case of war it does not matter if Russian-speakers are actually in danger in Ukraine or you just believe it. If Russian nationalists believe it (even if it is not real), then invasion will happen. But if actual military planners believe it, it may lead to mistakes: we will just show up and Kharkiv, Kyiv, most of Ukraine greets us with roses and flags and everything will be over after couple of days.
Btw, your interpretation of Russian language media is BS. Ukraine is basically a bilingual country and its media is already bilingual, trying to reach people of both languages. I guess there are some marginal outlets only in Russian, but for most of the media this specific law changes little.
TV stations that were shut were owned by Medvechuk. The Godfather of Medvechuk´s daughter is Putin, Medvechuk himself is a business partner of Belorussian president Lukashenko, Medvechuk supported the invasion of Crimea, the invasion of Donbas. They should have closed these stations earlier, the country is in war since 2014 and to keep these stations alive was insane. I do not know what was going on. Maybe it was corruption(so typical to Ukraine) or maybe they thought that Medvechuk can be mediator with Kreml, whatever.
Amazing conversation.
MAURIPOL
https://youtu.be/3rZK7o-pyw8
Fascinating ending problem on short versus long term benefits. Is it really "a matter of personal preference"? The right tail physicists make their decisions in a very particular economic setting one peculiar to a particular time and culture--a tiny lab within a huge bureaucracy by a global demand for US debt. Economists understand the benefits and costs of individual decisions in a Arrow-Debreu economy, but who can say anything about the net benefits--long or short term--of individual decisions in a debt-funded bureaucratic setting?
Re gradation and whether genius matters or if instead the collective scientific enterprise is more important: it seems to depend on whether we are blocked by problems where collective efforts are additive or not. In a case where there is a discrete challenge such that one can’t make incremental progress towards its solution, we need someone to simply find the result. If the problem is difficult, we may need a genius to pull it off. On the other hand there can be problems whose solutions can be worked out via small steps, each accessible to mere mortals.
I will comment on that very interesting conversation later this week: I am working on some medical issues for my family right now. I meant to comment when it was first posted: I have thought at length about assimilation which is a while seemingly an unsexy way of saying absorption of the cultural norms and traditions relating to IQ. especially here in Fairfax with the controversy about TJ High School, the science and stem school which I am interested in because the school systems are under such scrutiny now: with good reason. Steven Hsu sounds like he is also working out his life in a good direction.