The bitter truth about Arab hatred of Jews and how to model anti-Israeli sentiment
Richard - This bit from your post about knowing when anger will be a useful and successful reaction is really important. Thank you for that. I would say, it’s true of other emotions and heretical ideas too. Have you considered expanding upon this as a more general concept to include other emotions and heresies? Or maybe you’ve already written on it somewhere?
“But there’s a psychological story we can tell here, in which people get angry when doing so is useful. If someone who is about the same size as you comes and slaps you in the face, you might get mad and hit him back. If he is a professional boxer, there’s a good chance that you’ll know better than to even get angry in the first place. Anger requires both grievance and some hope of taking action to change your situation for the better. When there’s no hope, it either never forms or dissipates.”
There is another aspect to your argument which further bolsters it, and that is the point of "usefulness."
Almost since the start of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, each side was seen as essentially useless to other countries aside from the "only democracy in the Middle East" crowd. However, that is no longer the case as Israel's technology sector out punches it's weight by several magnitudes.
In 2022, Israeli technology start-ups raised $9.3B in VC funding, with a population of 9.4M, which means ~$993 in VC dollars per person.
In comparison the US raised ~$726 per person ($241B on a 332M population) while Western Europe raised an abysmal $296 per person ($101B on a 342M population).
All this means that Israel is an incredibly important strategic partner, and increasingly so. This goes for both the US (who needs to keep Israeli technology out of the hands of their geopolitical rivals) and poorly diversified countries, like Saudi Arabia, who need to ingratiate themselves into the Israeli technology sector to stop their slide into obscurity (and civil uprising) as the need for oil declines in the coming years.
This adds up to an international community who will start to be more tolerant of Israel's handling of the Palestinian issue, as their "usefulness" continues to rapidly diverge from the Palestinians lack thereof.
I believe you are framing the situation in terms that are too Western to provide useful insights. The desire for revenge might well afflict the average Palestinian. But the real issue here is jihad. The jihadist is not simply motivated by revenge. They occupy a dissociated mental state where they believe Allah is directing them to destroy local infidels for a heavenly reward. In Western terms, this would be considered a form of mass psychosis. The likelihood of Israel remaining a middle Eastern state likely depends mostly on the number of jihadists in the area. If it hits 100k plus, it's gonna get hard.
First of all, it seems to me that this is the best article, or at least one of the best articles I have read on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and I have read thousands.
However, carrying out ethnic cleansing in the Palestinian territories will be very difficult and morally controversial. Moreover, no country will volunteer to absorb Palestinian refugees, and rightly so. The realistic model is autonomy for the Palestinians, where they will not live under occupation in most respects, but with absolute security control by the IDF, which will prevent terrorism from raising its head. Before the terrible mistake of the Oslo Accords in 1993, in which Yitzhak Rabin gave the terrorists territory adjacent to the center of Israel, fewer Palestinians were killed in all 25 years of occupation than are killed in typical 2-3 days of this war.
Strong IDF security control combined with Palestinian civil autonomy that will provide economic prosperity is a reasonable combination, and if the international community wakes up and realizes that this is the best deal, life will be bearable. In 2020, 3 people were killed in Israel by Palestinian terrorism. It is possible to stabilize the death toll at such numbers, even without absolute solutions.
I believe the most effective approach combines the utmost Palestinian despair regarding national achievements with the greatest Palestinian hope for personal successes - such as economic success, family support, and career development. Among Arab citizens of Israel, despite prevalent hatred towards Israel, many are outstanding doctors who impartially treat injured soldiers. This happens because they concentrate on their personal lives, and Israeli security forces prevent the formation of a national structure that could engage them in conflict.
Israeli here. Westerners know very few details about the conflict and even Richard falls to obviously false HAMAS-reported numbers of civilian deaths - HAMAS rules in Gaza and only HAMAS is the source of all "official" Gazan numbers. They come with incredible precision like fake 471 dead after attack on hospital which was HAMAS missile falling early. No, there are no 16 000 dead in Gaza - all terrorist groups are liars.
A million Arabs live in "mainland" Israel itself, i.e. outside Palestinian Autonomy (PA) and Gaza. There are lots of problems among their own community like incredible mafia violence killing even children (UM silent as usual) and complex relations with Jewish people but, for example, half of medical school graduates are Arabs and a 1/4 of nurses. At hospital your doctor very will be an Arab and it works. They have their own parties (both hate each other!) and parliament members. By the way, many Arabs are Christians - in Nazareth 30% are.
And the largest issue - the Jordan Valley is the place where Jews and Judaism appeared at least 2850 years ago (earliest inscription on the wall by invading king). Not allowing Jews live where Motherland is has only one name -racism - which is now policy of Democratic Left in US. Hilarious.
As it concerns Muslim support of Gaza - support is among the ordinary people but they do not decide anything in the Middle East (or decide very little). Every Muslim knows who orchestrated 7/10 (Iran and Russia), why (prevent Abraham's Accords be signed with S.Arabia) and even Hezbollah does not really jump into the boat.
The recent extraordinary meeting of Muslim states had shown no real support for Gaza and actually said "Be strong! We are together!", nothing else when full boycott of Israel was planned. S.Arabia confirmed they are still in contact with Israel.
So the most of damage is done by "useful idiots" mainly in US being openly pro-HAMAS. They are the sheep to be slaughtered for HAMAS as tragically loudest pro-Palestinian voice in Israel Viviene Silver was killed at home at her Kibbutz when every attacker knew who was she...
Ignorance, stupidity, naivety, hopeless unrealistic idealism - I do not know how to call this Western disease.
I found this post interesting and enlightening. I would like to propose that we stop seeing and promoting Palestinians as "refugees. "
I will use a true anecdote to illustrate why: when my mother-in-law, a Korean born in what is now North Korea in the late 1940's, fled the north during the Korean War with her family, her father bribed/paid a fleeing truck driver to take his family as far south as possible. Her mother made sure to leave only with the clothes on her back, and she carried a large sewing machine.
Why the sewing machine? Because her mother knew that she was not going to be a "refugee." For a refugee, there is always hope of going back. She was going to be a "migrant" with her family in the south. They knew they were not going back. They were going to make a living in what is now South Korea. My mother in law immigrated to the US, and did very well as a dress designer, eventually having her own company that made high end dressers.
The world needs to stop accepting the narrative of Palestinians as refugees. Multiple wars have led to decreasing land for this Palestinian state project, and not only have Palestinian leaders failed, but the regional Arabs and the UN have also failed Palestinians by promoting the ghetto-ization of Palestinians by making them depending on foreign aid to keep them as refugees rather than as migrants.
They need to take the sewing machine and create a world for themselves, rather than live for the hatred of Israel.
Directionally, there's a lot of truth here. But a few points I'd take exception with:
1. While China's overwhelming force, and the immense power of the Chinese state, surely have something to do with the muted reaction to the Uighurs, I wonder how much is due to other factors.
The Uighurs are non-Arab, located in the remote northeastern corner of the Muslim world. And China is a more closed society and better able to manage the narrative, to keep negative imagery from escaping. Are there Uighur kids held in cages somewhere? Probably, with some quick Googling I can find this allegation made, but no pictures or video. There IS video of Palestinian children held in what look like chicken cages by Israelis (which, at the beginning of this war, was notoriously mislabeled as Israeli children being held by Palestinians).
Most people are basically innumerate, especially at the emotional level. A good video does more damage than any statistic could.
2. When it comes to the international community, the hatred of Israel is more linear. Though it should be clear here that "linear" here is really logarithmic, because per my point about innumeracy, it's not the number that's influencing people, it's the imagery that that number produces.
Killing 2,000 vs. 1,000 civilians doesn't double your level of opposition, I don't even think killing 10,000 vs. 1,000 does. The number is probably somewhere between 10,000 and 100,000.
Also the "International Community" clearly needs to be modeled in discrete groups, with different functions for what it would take for them to hate Israel. Something like: Arabs > non-Arab Muslims and Marxists (including Woke) > rest of world > Americans.
There is some level of Israeli violence that would make even US Boomer Republican support decrease somewhat. Though support for Israel would never drop to zero worldwide, just as support for Palestinians would never drop to zero, even in the event of one side systematically exterminating the other entirely.
During the Civil War, General Sherman's destruction of property of the Old South's elite during his March to the Sea and his northern advances through the Carolinas were designed to crush the Southern Classes hope for any type of true resurgence of the Old South. This was as much real destruction of property as it was a moral and psychological defeat. Likewise, the Palestinian mind has to face the reality that the insistence on the Right of Return and the denial of the right of Israel to exist can only mean an expulsion of the Palestinians from the Levant and/or their destruction. A war between the Palestinians and the Israelis will not end well for the Palestinians.
It’s not about land. It’s about the Islamists belief it would be against their religion to allow a Jewish state to exist in the historic Jewish homeland. The Palestinian Arabs have rejected land compromises time and again, and never made a counter offer.
"The Irrationality of Anti-Israeli Sentiment" would be better titled as "The Irrationality of a classic Straw Man characterization of Anti-Israeli Sentiment".
That the pro-Israel case always consists of substantial lies and meme magic has not gone unnoticed on TikTok, and if you look at the popularity of various hashtags there, Israel is FOR ONCE losing the meme war (by at least a 10x margin), and dominance of the memetics sphere has always been their secret weapon. Most of the pro-Palestinian people seem to have also simultaneously lost their Pavlovian reaction to the most powerful weapon of all: the term "anti-Semite".
If this trend holds, some analysts are projecting Israel will lose US public support in about 10 years. Israel will still presumably control US politicians due to their top notch lobbying (and perhaps the Epstein kicker), but if that should ever break, being alone surrounded by enemies in the Middle East isn't going to be a pleasant experience for someone with Israel's track record.
Best of luck to you and your strategy, Israelis! :)
You argue like an Anglo-Saxon Neo Liberal Economy Professor before 2008.
First: Like them you use bad Nomenclatura:
Antisemitism was „introduced“ by German Racists to make clear that they despise Jews for belonging to the „Deficient Race“ of Semites and not for their Religion.
Which meant: Jews who became Christians were still Semites and therefore deficient.
Sure Antisemitism towards Jews in Germany was stronger since there were nearly no Arabs in Germany who could marry into the „Arian“ Bloodpool.
Now it happens that Muslim Arabs consider themselves to be Semites.
By calling their hatred towards Israel and/or Jews you call them Selfheaters.
In your „Herrenreiter“ Ignorance you do not care about that: But be aware others do.
You are using a „Bullshit Term“ used by Racist German Bullshitters to Name something that could be much easier described by the Words „Judenhass“ (Jewhater) and/or Israel Hater.
The Reason Muslim Arab Palestinians for sure have stronger „Reasons“ for hating Israel and/or Jews: Religion and War for Land.
Whether their Hate is justified in the evident Magnitude or not can be seen differently, but what is clear is that you as a „Philosophical Herrenreiter“ believe that the Solution to Israels Problem is to show the Muslim Arab Palestinians the Whip whenever they call for their Rights.
Put those „Untermenschen“ in their Place.
And finally make them hate themselves.
Let them become good „Weiningers“!
I have no Sympathy for Islam and not much for Palestinians and I despise the Hamas, but reading your Anglo-Saxon Neoliberal „Herrenreiter“ Crap makes clear that I cannot eat as much as I want to vomit when I think of People like you.
I do not know what your „Ethnicity“ or „Religion“ is but be assured „Übermenschen“ like you are disgusting.
Turn around, step down and become „Human“ again. If you can.
I have three little letters for you. WMD. You've failed to take in to account that in today's world very small numbers of people can exert vast power far beyond their numbers. If Palestinians were to completely lose hope, what else have they got to lose? We can be assured that somebody will hand them a WMD suicide vest.
Even if every Jew in the world were to move to Israel (and most don't want to) Israel would still be too small a state, in too dangerous a neighborhood, to be sustainable.
The bottom line is not that Israelis are evil and all of that. It is instead that the founders of Israel made a fatal tactical error in WHERE they chose to build a Jewish state. The founders had good intentions, and have been remarkably capable in sustaining the tactical error, but that foundational tactical error remains a noose around the neck of Israel.
WMD. Sooner or later, that will be the conclusion to this story for all sides of the conflict. The smart people on both sides will get out of the region before that moment comes, and the unfortunate on all sides will fight to the death over a scrap of desert in one of the worst neighborhoods on Earth.
Roughly half of American marriages end in divorce. The Middle East is a horror show divorce in progress, and the divorce will be completed only when both parties have stabbed each other with broken bottles, and are bleeding to death on the bathroom floor.
Hate is an emotion that no one can control, you can hate but you can’t act on it. Protestants hate Catholics and vice versa plus they have had a bad history. Neither of two groups now are committing any infringements on the other. Even if Muslims don’t like Jews that does not give Israel a free pass to not comply with international law. Moreover, talking about Israeli society, they have become an extremist far right society, who have adopted the ideology of Meir Khan. If you were truthful you would analyzed Israelis society evolution to the right over the 30 years. That actually the journalists David Sheen even said when the Khanist terrorist walked into the Ibraham quarters and killed 20 Muslim prayer, 30 days later Hamas launched the first suicide attack. Anti-semitism for the right has turned into anti-racism for the left. Hold your breath Richard Anti-semitism is going no where and it is rising due to the acts of zionist. Your are an untruthful man who is so blinded by liberal delusions. Believe me if for the last 50 years Muslims have shown one thing , they will kick ass of any occupier, Soviet Union, US in Iraq and Afghanistan, and it seems like Israel is on the path. You are a woke conservative nothing els.
I guess it's the natural edge lord thing for you to do to come out in favor of ethnic cleansing, but even leaving aside that, crazily enough, some people morally object to that kind of thing in and of itself, going along with it has creates incentives for countries to do it again. Israel has wanted precisely this at least since Netanyahu came to power in the late 2000s; his government openly opposed Palestinian statehood - not now, or until some conditions are met, but ever - and supported Hamas over the PA for precisely that purpose, in order to enable Israel at a future date to annex Gaza and the West Bank and likely ethnically cleanse those regions of Palestinians (he himself is reticent about his end goal but a few of his cabinet members say this is the goal openly). If that plan works, then other states will take note and see it as a viable strategy of ethnically cleansing groups they don't like without becoming pariahs. It's ironic that you note the success of the Chinese with the Uighurs as a template to follow, but don't consider that countries like China are more likely to do this to ethnic minorities in the future precisely because they'll note that this strategy works because the 'international community' tacitly aids and abets it.
I guess you are missing the point. The leaders of Pakistan use the Jihadi warriors like little puppets they can use to raise and lower tensions with India, but they know they do not want a big war with India. Death by 1,000 cuts is a slogan but India has over a billion people and is more advanced technologically and its economy is much bigger and stronger. The existential threat is that India could crush Pakistan in a conventional war or at least get it into a war of attrition that Pakistan cannot win. Pakistan may win a few tactical battles, but it will not so slowly run out of people and munitions. It has no big power arms supplier. The Pakistani leadership is too smart to get into such a war. And it would never let any of its nukes get out of its direct control. What is hard for Islamist extremists to understand is that most Muslims are not as eager as they are to get into a suicidal war. When Islamists won the Presidency in Egypt during the Arab Spring, it wasn’t long before the military took them down. The military in Pakistan is even less willing to tolerate any threat from Islamists to its dominance.
Hamas would rather every single Palestinian die than stop trying to destroy Israel.