55% chance of Republicans winning in 2024 sounds high to me. Just as a base case most presidents win reelection. And I do think Trump is mildly less popular than Generic Republican. Is there a specific bad thing you think will derail a second Biden term?
Overall I agree with most of these, but wouldn't be s bullish on both Trump and Biden running in 2024...
So here's what I think might happen instead (probabilities in percent):
2024 nominees for president:
Republicans:
- Scott and de Santis (30)
Trump and Scott (30)
Trump and de Santis (15)
(Kanye) West and idk who the VP nominee would be (15)
Someone else (e.g. Don Jr) (10)
Democratic nominee:
Biden and Harris (40)
Harris and someone else (Kelly?) (20)
Kelly and Harris (10)
Someone else and Harris (15)
Someone else (both for president and VP) (15)
2022 US elections
Senate
- stays democratic (65)
- republicans take it (35)
- democrats take PA (75)
- democrats take WI (60)
- democrats take NC (40)
- democrats take FL (30)
Republicans take:
- NH (25)
- AZ (35)
Other elections:
Germany this year:
- CDU at 25-30%, Greens at 18-23%, FPD at 10-15% and SPD at 12-17% (60)
- CDU at 30+%, Greens at 15-19%, FPD at 5-10% and SPD at 17-22% (25)
Any others (e.g. Greens finish first or AFD above 15%) (15)
Czech election this year:
Strongest party/coalition:
Pirates and Stan (60)
Ano (30)
Conservatives (spolu?) 10
Canadian election this year :
Yes (65)
No (35)
Outcomes:
Liberal majority (40)
Liberal minority (30)
Conservative majority (15)
Conservative minority (15)
French election next year:
Winner first round:
Le Pen (50)
Macron (35)
Bertrand/another from LR (15)
Winner second round:
- Macron (65)
- Le Pen (30)
- Bertrand/ another from LR (5)
Sports:
Euro winner this year :
France (35)
Spain (15)
Portugal (15)
Croatia (10)
Germany (10)
England (10)
Someone else (5)
World Cup winner next year:
France (25)
Brazil (15)
Spain (10)
England (10)
Germany (5)
Argentina (5)
Portugal (5)
Croatia (5)
Mexico (5)
Someone else (15)
...
Should not be taken too seriously.
55% chance of Republicans winning in 2024 sounds high to me. Just as a base case most presidents win reelection. And I do think Trump is mildly less popular than Generic Republican. Is there a specific bad thing you think will derail a second Biden term?
Haha.
Mind boggling.
This goes against liberal institutional wokism.
We think you’re just being bougie about Trump but literally there is no candidate.
Open their mouths and ewww RINO
Predict a 2024 DNC w/ Biden, GOP Senate and/or recession and another war.
Entirely reactionary here. 85%