It seems to me that you misjudged this war for a very similar reason that you voted for Trump: a pathological degree of risk appetite and a failure of imagination, leading to irrational optimism about the odds of a best case scenario.
I do not see Trump changing his position on Israel. Trump is sensitive to public opinion, but he has a rough sense of trade-offs. Let's say that 1% of Democrats, 1% of independents, and 1% of Republicans, maybe 1% of the country, might move toward Trump if he attacked Netanyahu. When I say 1% of Republicans, I mean that there are 1% of Republicans right now who will be voting Democrat or staying home in November, but who if he changed his tune on Netanyahu, would come out and vote. This is potentially what Trump has to gain.
On the other hand, attacking Netanyahu would alienate a huge chunk of his base: Evangelical Christians who love Israel. Again, maybe these people are only 10% of the Republican coalition at this point, but that's bigger than the 1% he has to gain from attacking Netanyahu.
This is a pretty simple calculation, and not super complicated. Yes, there are a lot of people who criticize Trump for his friendship with Netanyahu -- but very few of these people are going to *switch* their votes in November over this singular issue. Democrats who criticize him will remain Democrats; Republicans who criticize him will remain Republicans. He would just come off as weak.
Trump hates admitting he was wrong. If Netanyahu is a bad guy, but we just went to war to help Netanyahu, then Trump is an idiot. He would rather double down and stick to his guns than admit he made a mistake.
Really, no American president is going to divorce from Israel. They're a regional hegemon with interests strongly aligned with our own in a region where our enemies are implacable and our other allies are duplicitous and weak. American power projection in the Middle East would be much harder without Israel. We'd end up in the same situation as China is in right now: it depends on Middle Eastern oil and gas, but it's frozen out of power politics in the region.
To that end, if we did abandon Israel, it would move immediately to China, and China would accept it with open arms. China would be far more permissive with Israel's conduct in Palestine and Lebanon, probably explicitly allying with the Israeli right-wing and helping it undermine elections to stay in power.
This is true, but one of his favorite tactics for indulging that impulse is to throw others under the bus when failure becomes impossible to deny. Publicly breaking with Bibi to deflect from his own poor judgment here seems like a nontrivial possibility.
Good political arithmetic, I am afraid. At the same time, I guess Trump may suspect that Netanyahu has indeed made him look like an idiot - the 11th February presentation in the Oval Office complete with roll call of potential new leaders for Iran now looks like a scam, the kind of which Trump would play on others - and, not least because he is petty and selfish, he may wish to extract some revenge.
BTW, the same political arithmetic applied to the Democrats suggests that it may be in their electoral interest to throw Israel under the bus. Matthew Iglesias has already made the point.
"there may yet be negative consequences for the greater Middle East". Understatement much? Also, no mention of negative consequences for Asia and Europe. Somehow that's not important.
This kind of analysis is why arrogant and ignorant Americans with no skin in the game shouldn't go around bombing around the world. As I said in the other post:
So you champion more American imperialism and world wide peacekeeping on my tax dime? Why shouldn’t Iran control Hormuz? They’ve always had the capacity. Why should American guarantee safety?
Maybe you are and independent writer because no one will hite you, but you are not independent in your thinking. What Trumps thinks, Woulda coulda shoulda, If, Maybe, The Future. How to say you hate Trump by making "independant" assumptions.
Each deal has reasons for compromise. You left out why Iran would comply and why those reasons would be untinable. How about China influencing Iran for much needed oil? Irans need for income? Protect infrastructure?
How to hate on President Trump by saying he's done well, but did it wrong. As for me, I don't want atom bombs on my BINGO card. Good for him.
It seems to me that you misjudged this war for a very similar reason that you voted for Trump: a pathological degree of risk appetite and a failure of imagination, leading to irrational optimism about the odds of a best case scenario.
I do not see Trump changing his position on Israel. Trump is sensitive to public opinion, but he has a rough sense of trade-offs. Let's say that 1% of Democrats, 1% of independents, and 1% of Republicans, maybe 1% of the country, might move toward Trump if he attacked Netanyahu. When I say 1% of Republicans, I mean that there are 1% of Republicans right now who will be voting Democrat or staying home in November, but who if he changed his tune on Netanyahu, would come out and vote. This is potentially what Trump has to gain.
On the other hand, attacking Netanyahu would alienate a huge chunk of his base: Evangelical Christians who love Israel. Again, maybe these people are only 10% of the Republican coalition at this point, but that's bigger than the 1% he has to gain from attacking Netanyahu.
This is a pretty simple calculation, and not super complicated. Yes, there are a lot of people who criticize Trump for his friendship with Netanyahu -- but very few of these people are going to *switch* their votes in November over this singular issue. Democrats who criticize him will remain Democrats; Republicans who criticize him will remain Republicans. He would just come off as weak.
Trump hates admitting he was wrong. If Netanyahu is a bad guy, but we just went to war to help Netanyahu, then Trump is an idiot. He would rather double down and stick to his guns than admit he made a mistake.
Really, no American president is going to divorce from Israel. They're a regional hegemon with interests strongly aligned with our own in a region where our enemies are implacable and our other allies are duplicitous and weak. American power projection in the Middle East would be much harder without Israel. We'd end up in the same situation as China is in right now: it depends on Middle Eastern oil and gas, but it's frozen out of power politics in the region.
To that end, if we did abandon Israel, it would move immediately to China, and China would accept it with open arms. China would be far more permissive with Israel's conduct in Palestine and Lebanon, probably explicitly allying with the Israeli right-wing and helping it undermine elections to stay in power.
I don't think this War in Iran is strongly aligned with our interests.
"Trump hates admitting he was wrong."
This is true, but one of his favorite tactics for indulging that impulse is to throw others under the bus when failure becomes impossible to deny. Publicly breaking with Bibi to deflect from his own poor judgment here seems like a nontrivial possibility.
Good political arithmetic, I am afraid. At the same time, I guess Trump may suspect that Netanyahu has indeed made him look like an idiot - the 11th February presentation in the Oval Office complete with roll call of potential new leaders for Iran now looks like a scam, the kind of which Trump would play on others - and, not least because he is petty and selfish, he may wish to extract some revenge.
BTW, the same political arithmetic applied to the Democrats suggests that it may be in their electoral interest to throw Israel under the bus. Matthew Iglesias has already made the point.
"Most of this holds up", Richard says.
Let's look at some phrases from the analysis:
"there may yet be negative consequences for the greater Middle East". Understatement much? Also, no mention of negative consequences for Asia and Europe. Somehow that's not important.
This kind of analysis is why arrogant and ignorant Americans with no skin in the game shouldn't go around bombing around the world. As I said in the other post:
https://www.richardhanania.com/p/judge-foreign-policy-decisions-by/comment/228680389
Well, this post aged like milk.
I really think it’s too early for an analysis like this. I don’t expect the ceasefire to hold.
So you champion more American imperialism and world wide peacekeeping on my tax dime? Why shouldn’t Iran control Hormuz? They’ve always had the capacity. Why should American guarantee safety?
Maybe you are and independent writer because no one will hite you, but you are not independent in your thinking. What Trumps thinks, Woulda coulda shoulda, If, Maybe, The Future. How to say you hate Trump by making "independant" assumptions.
Each deal has reasons for compromise. You left out why Iran would comply and why those reasons would be untinable. How about China influencing Iran for much needed oil? Irans need for income? Protect infrastructure?
How to hate on President Trump by saying he's done well, but did it wrong. As for me, I don't want atom bombs on my BINGO card. Good for him.
You're are literally one of the biggest morons I've ever seen in a comment section.