Why Everyone Hates the Democrats

In a time of declining trust, MAGA remains immune

I have a new article at UnHerd that goes deep into the polling data to determine why Democrats are now so unpopular.

Democrats have an image problem. According to a Wall Street Journal survey that has tracked the popularity of the two major parties for 35 years, a record-low 33% of Americans approve of the Democratic Party. CNN likewise reports an approval rating of 28%, the lowest in more than three decades of polling. Quinnipiac finds that only 19% of Americans approve of how congressional Democrats are handling the job — the lowest share in the 16 years the pollster has been asking that question. Aggregating the polls, the analysts G. Elliott Morris and Mary Radcliffe calculate a Democratic disadvantage of 10 points in net favorability — the worst figure the party has faced in more than two decades.

One might be tempted to conclude from this data that voters simply agree with Republicans more on the issues. The real story is more complicated. What Democrats are lacking isn’t so much the right policy package, but a demonstrated willingness to stand up to Donald Trump and his agenda in the second term. The issue, moreover, is less one of increasing Democratic unpopularity, than Republicans weathering a general decline in trust in institutions due to the unique connection Trump has with a significant minority of the country. Democrats cannot break this bond; they can only hope to mobilize the forces against it…

So if not policy, what does explain the sorry state of the Democrats? It would be one thing if they were cratering with Independents. That would suggest that they are simply out of step with the majority of Americans. In fact, the party leadership is reaching new lows because it faces discontent among its base. In the CNN poll cited above, only 58% of Democratic-aligned adults have a favorable view of their party, compared to 76% of Republicans. Morris and Radcliffe point to a Strength in Numbers/Verasite poll showing that Left-wing Democratic voters are disproportionately unhappy: about 20% of self-identified “very liberal” Democrats now have an unfavorable view of their own party, far higher than the equivalent disaffection among “very conservative” Republicans, who are at 8%. If you factor out this Left-flank discontent, Democratic approval would rise by a net of eight points. In the Strength in Numbers poll, Democrats actually do better with Independents.

Read the whole thing here.

See the chart below for general trends, and notice how over the last two decades this is more a story of Democrats collapsing than Republicans doing all that much better than before.

So much of our politics does center around the Trump cult. As I’ve been saying for years, Republican voters really like this man, and will adjust their attitudes towards issues and other politicians based on what he says and does. Start with that model, and you can understand a lot about politics. Even when Republican voters continue disagreeing with him or don’t like some specific aspect of his conduct, they look past it.