114 Comments

I agree directionally. But there are cases where it's best NOT to be sanguine about markets being a sufficient antidote to DEI.

i.e Industries or domains with loose feedback loops - The most obvious examples are places where markets aren't the primary resource allocation mechanism - bureaucracies or the military or academia - where job protection and lack of consumer feedback can take quite a while for underperformance to feed back into hiring processes. Wokeness in public health is a case in point (which arguably already caused thousands of incremental deaths ) and many more in expectation when the next pandemic comes around. But even within for-profit entities, you can have loose feedback loops, especially for junior employees who don't directly affect the bottom line (this is especially so if it's also culturally harder to fire minorities). But with junior employees, they're less likely to have real-word impact anyway, positive or negative. Over time however, it can create a talent bottleneck as these incompetent junior employees rise up the ranks, but not sure the problem is quite that bad anywhere yet.

More importantly, I think it's a mistake to consider DEI a static problem. DEI is much more like terrorism rather than malaria. Malaria doesn't necessarily get worse if we don't take action. It isn't encouraged by our inaction. Both terrorism and DEI are. So an EA style utilitarian analysis will underweight it's importance.

Having said that, I agree that conservatives spend way too much time on this and i'd be surprised if evne after accounting for the dynamic nabture of the problem, it features in my top 5. The biggest negative impact is probably going to be via damaging the credibility of signalling tools (like universities) but i'm not sure that'll be entirely bad.

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I worked at Boeing for many years, in a senior role. Every person took safety seriously. I recall a meeting in 2003 where we forecasted by 2020 we would have solved for every redundancy and failure except for the very edge of human failure. That failures in the 2020 time frame would be one in 10Billion like probability. Our question in 2003 was how do we engineer around even those errors.

I raise this as an example to reflect how deeply Boeing thinks about its product and safety. No industry does the same. 250k people die each year in healthcare from medical errors. Imagine if we left airplane safety to human error.

I believe the 737 MAX MCAS accident would likely not have happened with a US pilot in the left seat. US pilots simply have more training. It is an engineers job to make sure flight safety though is not subject to human frailty. Engineering a solution to be immune to human error is likely easier in healthcare, which is abysmal, versus aerospace, which is exceptionally safe.

The recent error in the plug door is likely a failure to follow process. Procedure is pretty clear - the mechanic needs to stamp the manufacturing log that they tightened the bolts. And QA that they inspected it. The system is designed for an IQ of 90 with redundancy. Because Boeing, Spirit and FAA care about safety they will figure out what happened and correct it. The duty in aerospace is to engineer the systems to be safe no matter what humans do.

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Hanania's thesis has been proven false many times already... Disney and Bud Light are two recent examples. Wokeness has destroyed both companies, but they haven't corrected, and they're unlikely to be able to correct. Their historic customers simply will not forgive them.

He brought up physicians. Lots of DEI in healthcare. There a tremendous amount of unqualified female, mostly black, physicians being churned out these days. They are completely incompetent. Yes, here and there they get sanctioned by their medical boards or hospital disciplinary committees, but even those governing bodies mind their P's and Q's because they know that black females are untouchable. In the entire time these DEI hires are working, they are harming patients, day after day. This can continue, in many cases, forever. Capitalism will not auto correct it.

When it comes to DEI with airlines, the problem is two-fold: 1. Low IQ diversity hires will cause problems, We already seeing that with the recent Alaska Airlines door being blown off, but we also see a greater number of airline delays and inconveniences then we ever have. It's not binary, crash or no crash. It's a spectrum. And we are clearly moving towards the low quality end of that spectrum. There are a lot of filthies built into planes these days, autopilot etc. So maybe there won't be a crash for a long long time just because a black female is flying. But that doesn't mean it's not statistically unsafe. Just because you play Russian roulette for one round and don't get shot in the head doesn't mean Russian roulette is safe. 2. The bigger issue is confidence. People will lose confidence in flying when you have Laquisha and Tamika as pilots, thus they will fly less. This was not only suppress the airline industry, but it will suppress all of commerce in economic activity worldwide. We will regress as a civilization.

On the two sides of this debate we have Elon Musk, arguably the best businessman the world has ever seen, and you have Hanania, a libertarian writer with no real world business experience at all. Whose opinion do you think should carry more weight? You don't think Elon Musk knows a thing or two about capitalism?

Finally, Hanania has his typical naive take about the direction of the world, libertarians always think everything will work out just fine. They still have their heads in the sand about the fact that there is a cabal of evil people, globalists, chosen ones, all Soros-like, who hate white Christian Europeans and want to destroy them. DEI is yet another weapon they are using against us.

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Watching Disney seriously weaken its brand, including running down various franchises, the US comic industry implode and mainstream media suffering plummeting readership makes me way less sanguine about what markets will fix. Also, there is actually quite a lot of discrimination in markets, though it is about cultural distance rather than race.

https://www.lorenzofromoz.net/p/there-is-significant-discrimination

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I find myself agreeing with the overall thrust of this post, and it's a point I've made to friends before, yet I'm simultaneously disagreeing with the specific examples.

The airline argument here seems bad:

1. The data ends in 2015, which is 8 years ago now. That was only a few years after people were saying DEI was just a college student fad that they'd grow out of.

2. The freakout isn't about pilots as far as I can tell. It's about plane builders and air traffic controllers.

Standards of pilot skill may be very high and remain so, but if ATC is directing planes to crash into each other, or if planes are being assembled by incompetents who leave bolts randomly loose all over planes leaving the factory, then people are gonna die no matter what.

There's ample evidence of both of these things happening.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2023/08/22/aviation-close-calls-faa-response/70652601007/

"According to Federal Aviation Administration data, near-miss accidents where planes nearly hit each other have increased nearly 25% in the last decade, with about 300 such accidents in the most recent 12-month period for which reports are available."

The press is picking up on this trend:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11719777/After-near-miss-airport-Americans-trust-plane-journey-safe.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/21/business/airline-safety-close-calls.html

"The incidents — highlighted in preliminary F.A.A. safety reports but not publicly disclosed — were among a flurry of at least 46 close calls involving commercial airlines last month alone.

[...] Mistakes by air traffic controllers — stretched thin by a nationwide staffing shortage — have been one major factor."

Richard says, you can't sound the alarm about DEI unless you show the evidence of safety getting worse. There's your evidence. 99% of ATC towers are understaffed.

Why can't they hire enough air traffic controllers?

https://dailycaller.com/2023/10/27/biden-faa-pushing-diversity-hiring-as-air-traffic-control-system-falls-into-total-disarray/

"Mountain States Legal Foundation sued on behalf of plaintiff Andrew Brigida and over 2,000 other air traffic controller applicants who had test scores invalidated due to former President Barack Obama’s 2015 FAA diversity policy intended to hire more minorities. The lawsuit became class-action certified in 2022."

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/faas-new-dei-hiring-quota-troubling

"Secretary Pete Buttigieg's Transporation Department, rolled out a new "Diversity and Inclusion" program to hire people with "severe intellectual disability" and "psychiatric disability" (among various other disabilities)"

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Markets may be rational, but the system as a whole is not, and even when we say that markets are rational, we're usually dismissing the speed of feedback. If substandard DEI hires at the FAA cause (say) 3 plane crashes with fatalities instead of 1 over the next 10 years (and these numbers might be on the high side), what are the odds that they will get the blame, as opposed to suboptimal processes, insufficient checklists, low staffing, etc.? Failures in US aviation are extremely multifactorial due to redundant safety measures; lots of things have to go wrong for someone to die, and you can always focus on whatever part you like. In the healthcare system, the numbers are bigger, so you can do some stats, but even then the interpretation of the stats is not obvious, as the recent Cremieux posts have reminded us (is this doctor having fewer fatal outcomes because he is better or because he is taking on the easier cases only?).

BTW, though this is tangential: One key part of the Woke Capital issue is public pension funds imposing ESG criteria on their investing. This is a huge bag of dumb money subject entirely to political, not economic forces, distorting the market. I don't see how the market should correct this, though I'm optimistic about politics doing so.

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I think people are missing the most important issue with DEI and the airlines. Any DEI initiative in fact. They are blatantly DISCRIMINATING against heterosexual white males and no one is outraged. It has become the established norm. As a society, we have forgotten that racism & sexism in all forms is illegal and immoral!!!!!

No one is looking at where this takes us into the future. Once an idea becomes the accepted norm, it permeates every aspect of society. Now that it has taken root, changing it will take a generation or more, if ever. We must open our minds and ask if this is the type of country we want. In particular, for the coming generations of white boys & men.

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While I agree with this overall, and it matches my own experience in the tech industry, where I haven't seen any pressure to apply differential hiring standards for URMs, an obvious counterpoint to the point about airline deaths not having risen is that pilots haven't been diversified yet. These programs simply haven't yet had an opportunity to do any damage yet.

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You don't discuss DEI as practiced by the FAA. Unlike the airlines, the FAA is driven by politics and not the free market. Recent stories have come out that the FAA has revamped it's entrance exams to make it easier to hire under-represented minorities.

And the FAA academy instead of flunking those candidates out is passing them with remedial education and extra credit assignments.

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Jan 15·edited Jan 15

If a DEI pilot crashes a plane, would the media report it? We already had Maui burn to the ground, killing quadruple digits of people, and it went down the memory hole in under a week.

Your argument is that our institutions are powerful enough to counteract the dumber parts of DEI - but those institutions are getting weaker. This is conservatives argument (though they aren't making it well), is that if even pilot hiring is subject to DEI diktats then what else could be?

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"The only plausible case you can point to where something like wokeness or DEI arguably destroyed a nation is South Africa, but the demographics had to be really bad for that to happen. If we’re ever at the point where blacks make up 80% of America and whites are down to 7%, then wokeness could become as much of a threat as anti-trade and pro-union policies."

In 1800, what became South Africa was populated almost exclusively by European immigrants and various tawny indigenous peoples. Bantus (what we call 'blacks') weren't there yet. This is all to say that if you don't want South African demographics, you will have to eventually stop it through sustained violence (if you are a small, relatively undesirable country like Hungary you can relatively easily divert immigrants elsewhere for the time being, but major immigration draws can't do this).

"And even South Africa is not nearly as big of an economic basket case as Argentina and Venezuela have been."

South Africa is much worse than Argentina, and it has barely gotten started.

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...I'm with you Richard on the primary importance of market forces, (which can also be characterized as distributed decision making) but I think you are underestimating the sclerosis caused by wokeness and DEI in particular. The evidence isn't' to be found in the number of air disasters, or other specific competency failures, but in the overall loss of productivity. And this despite the huge productive gains from tech advances. Check out Peter Theil on that theme.

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"Democracy basically means government of the market, by the market, for the market… but the market is retarded." - Osho, probably

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“If we’re ever at the point where blacks make up 80% of America and whites are down to 7%, then wokeness could become as much of a threat as anti-trade and pro-union policies”

This is very far off. But africa’s population is exploding (fertility of other races not) and youd propose nothing to stop them from coming here.

I don’t see why things wouldnt start to get progressively worse as we take in greater numbers of low human capital individuals in the country and move in the direction of south africa’s demographics, however slowly.

Low human capital capitalism can produce horrible outcomes also. And this assumes that as we take in more Brownoids, with access to the ballot, they wont push for larger government, undermining the price signals that you argue will save us from deadly manifestations of DEI

Also, in 2008 didnt certain banks who were not subject to or responding to government mandates/incentives (such as community reinvestment act and bank branch expansion) still engage in risky loans to minorities, just because they were following an unhinged cultural mandate?

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If you think an airline safety graph that runs from 1970 to 2015 has much to tell us about the DEI risks that we face in the baroque post-2020 George Floyd era of uber-Wokeness, I have a pedestrian bridge in South Miami to sell to you.

From our recent experience with the late President of Harvard to the late CEO of Walgreens, it is clear that public and competitive pressures are a highly imperfect check against Woke-induced disasters stemming from mediocre hires.

Airline pilot hiring and staffing is a system with such meaningful lag times that I don't really expect to see statistically significant effects until at least 5 years after standards are cut, and maybe closer to 10. Even if a meaningful number of duds were hired and passed through training starting in 2021, they'll still be mere co-pilots to competent captains for several more years, until they gain enough seniority to reach the left

seat. Then the stakes go up, yet I still believe that the duds will be competent enough to fly safely in normal conditions, meaning we have to wait for dud captains to be faced with real emergencies (inherently rare) before the public-facing catastrophes begin. Which means the first planes aren't scheduled to start falling out of the sky until 2026 or so.

P.S. Your market argument proves too much. Airlines have always had meaningful incentives to avoid crashes, yet for some reason crashes used to be more frequent, and passengers were discomfited enough to demand government intervention.

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Have we really been hiring based on equity long enough to know if there will be plane crashes? I agree with you on markets and company incentives, but look at what the US military has done to itself against its own interests. There are examples of the market losing tons of money to hold firm on to woke ideology, no?

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