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Daniel Sz's avatar

This a great analysis of his current rhetoric and I agree completely about how grating it is, but at the end you seem a bit too confident about how things will turn out if he becomes president. If you look internationally, lot of right-wing populists in today are pretty good at using this kind of grievance based rhetoric while doing contradictory things in reality. For example Orban railing against the EU or immigration while happily taking EU funds and using immigrants on work visas to build factories. Never underestimate the capacity of rightoids to treat their electorate like suckers.

In addition, Vance may have actually convinced himself of this worldview but implementing pro-Appalachian nationalistic socialism is not a viable strategy for the current Republican coalition. Vance doesn’t have the same biomechanical connection to the base as Trump, which likely means that members of Congress will be likelier to challenge him if he tried to deviate too hard from standard Republican policies. There is a reasonable case to make that Vance will continue pander to the chuds on rhetoric and will give in to Republican interest groups on policy more often than not. Not 100% confident on this of course and I still really hate the grievance politics he seems to represent.

2028 seems likely to a choice of between Newsom, who will probably not live up to his current Abundance-pilled rhetoric and Vance, who is likely to govern somewhat closer to standard Republicanism than his Appalachian Kendi rhetoric suggests. In either case it will be interesting to see if in a post-Trump environment rhetoric and ideas will be more or less relevant compared to interest groups in either coalition.

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Dadio's avatar

The key to Vance is that the dude doesn't actually "believe" any of this. I find no reason to believe that he truly believes much of anything.

There is no reconciling the absolute contradiction (as you note) between Hillbilly Elegy and his current identity politics. There is no reconciling the circa 2022-24 embrace of Vance by the Silicon Valley boys with his current economic "ideas" (excepting the AI speech, as you note).

How does one explain his marriage? How does he one day explain his current politics to his adult children? None of it maths out. He is a LARPer, a troll, a chameleon.

He has said enough shit at this point that any arguments he makes in 2028 will be easily refuted by his own words. He will be limited by an inability to deviate from any Trump policy while he is still VP. Vance will be the easiest punching bag in the history of U.S. Presidential politics. If the Democratics can't manage to nominate a candidate able to destroy this clown...we deserve that ominous fate.

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