Last week, Jeff Maurer, who publishes the I Might Be Wrong Substack, invited me on his podcast to talk about the recent overthrow of Maduro. Jeff used to write for John Oliver, and his Substack is a unique combination of comedy and serious analysis of current events. So kind of like Oliver’s show, but much less dogmatically leftist and more willing to engage with alternative viewpoints.
As Jeff mentions, we are perfectly positioned to have a fruitful conversation, as we have disagreements about a policy while sharing a similar underlying model of the world. This is the sweet spot — there’s not much point in talking to someone you agree with on everything, but when people are living in completely different realities, there’s often not enough common ground for a real exchange of ideas.
If you yourself are unsure about how to think about Venezuela, this is a good place to hear arguments on both sides. I’m rereleasing the podcast here on my own feed. As it is on Jeff’s Substack, here the first approximately twenty-four minutes are free, and you have to be a paid subscriber to get the whole thing.
I end up agreeing with Jeff that from an “America First” perspective, the gains to the US are uncertain and likely to be small. But I do believe in US foreign policy as a tool for spreading freedom abroad. In fact, this could be part of a new basis for national identity, as the inward-looking attempts to build one have in my view been a disaster.
Developments since this podcast was recorded have strengthened my belief in my position. There is now polling data showing that Venezuelans generally support what the US has done. There was a lot of talk in this conversation about a potential backlash in Venezuela or the region. We just do not see that in the data. Venezuelans know that they are poor, that their living standards have fallen in recent memory, and the socialists who run their country are responsible for their problems. They want hope for a better future, and this is something they care more about than abstract concepts like when it is appropriate to use force under international law or even nationalism, or at least the kind of nationalism that would spur them to rally around their failed government.
Unfortunately, amidst this new optimism, political repression is increasing even as the regime seeks to comply with the US on oil and economic issues. This won’t be a straight line towards a better future, but I’m confident there is more hope for Venezuela today than there was a few weeks ago.
For the Persuasion article cited in the discussion, see here. I would also recommend this profile of Delcy Rodríguez for some context regarding the type of person we are now dealing with. And in case you missed them, my two previous articles on the Maduro operation are here and here.
Note: If you would like to get this podcast through a regular podcast app, go to richardhanania.com on a browser on your device (it doesn’t work in the app), log in to Substack, and click on the tab for either the Hanania Show or the H&H Podcast. Select the episode you want, and then choose one of Apple, Spotify, etc. under “Listen on” to your right. You’ll be able to add the show through an RSS feed, after which you will get new episodes, either free or paid depending on what kind of subscriber you are, through whichever platform you use.
