Richard Hanania's Newsletter

Safe Bets, Lotto Tickets, and Vibes

The Coming (30%) Demise of Ted Cruz

Oct 8, 2024 • 

Richard Hanania

45

12

October 2023

Announcing Insight Prediction Partnership

The importance of betting on beliefs

Oct 23, 2023 • 

Richard Hanania

37

22

September 2022

Why I'm Suing the Federal Government over PredictIt

On September 9, a group of investors trading on PredictIt and academics that study its data, along with its technology provider Aristotle International…

Sep 28, 2022 • 

Richard Hanania

61

4

June 2022

Finally, Real Money

It's all about the base rate

Jun 21, 2022 • 

Richard Hanania

26

16

March 2022

Why Forecasting War is Hard

The tire guy has become famous among those following the war in Ukraine closely for the following thread.

Mar 10, 2022 • 

Richard Hanania

42

82

February 2022

Lessons from Forecasting the Ukraine War

Given that I’ve made quite a few predictions about the war in Ukraine and how it would unfold, it’s a good time look back on them and draw some lessons…

Feb 28, 2022 • 

Richard Hanania

52

114

January 2022

Fertility as the Final Boss in Chinese Development, and Richard Hanania Prediction Markets

Predictions, January 2022

Jan 13, 2022 • 

Richard Hanania

30

34

September 2021

Futarchy: Robin Hanson on How Prediction Markets Can Take over the World

Transcript of interview

Sep 15, 2021 • 

Richard Hanania

16

2

May 2021

Predictions, Spring 2021

Intellectual honesty, and why Trump will be the 2024 nominee

May 12, 2021 • 

Richard Hanania

13

4