Richard Hanania's Newsletter

Safe Bets, Lotto Tickets, and Vibes

The Coming (30%) Demise of Ted Cruz

Oct 8, 2024 • 

Richard Hanania

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October 2023

Announcing Insight Prediction Partnership

The importance of betting on beliefs

Oct 23, 2023 • 

Richard Hanania

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September 2022

Why I'm Suing the Federal Government over PredictIt

On September 9, a group of investors trading on PredictIt and academics that study its data, along with its technology provider Aristotle International…

Sep 28, 2022 • 

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June 2022

Finally, Real Money

It's all about the base rate

Jun 21, 2022 • 

Richard Hanania

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March 2022

Why Forecasting War is Hard

The tire guy has become famous among those following the war in Ukraine closely for the following thread.

Mar 10, 2022 • 

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February 2022

Lessons from Forecasting the Ukraine War

Given that I’ve made quite a few predictions about the war in Ukraine and how it would unfold, it’s a good time look back on them and draw some lessons…

Feb 28, 2022 • 

Richard Hanania

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January 2022

Fertility as the Final Boss in Chinese Development, and Richard Hanania Prediction Markets

Predictions, January 2022

Jan 13, 2022 • 

Richard Hanania

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September 2021

Futarchy: Robin Hanson on How Prediction Markets Can Take over the World

Transcript of interview

Sep 15, 2021 • 

Richard Hanania

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May 2021

Predictions, Spring 2021

Intellectual honesty, and why Trump will be the 2024 nominee

May 12, 2021 • 

Richard Hanania

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