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Safe Bets, Lotto Tickets, and Vibes
The Coming (30%) Demise of Ted Cruz
Oct 8, 2024
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Richard Hanania
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Safe Bets, Lotto Tickets, and Vibes
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October 2023
Announcing Insight Prediction Partnership
The importance of betting on beliefs
Oct 23, 2023
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Richard Hanania
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Announcing Insight Prediction Partnership
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September 2022
Why I'm Suing the Federal Government over PredictIt
On September 9, a group of investors trading on PredictIt and academics that study its data, along with its technology provider Aristotle International…
Sep 28, 2022
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Richard Hanania
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Why I'm Suing the Federal Government over PredictIt
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June 2022
Finally, Real Money
It's all about the base rate
Jun 21, 2022
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Richard Hanania
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Finally, Real Money
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March 2022
Why Forecasting War is Hard
The tire guy has become famous among those following the war in Ukraine closely for the following thread.
Mar 10, 2022
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Richard Hanania
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Why Forecasting War is Hard
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February 2022
Lessons from Forecasting the Ukraine War
Given that I’ve made quite a few predictions about the war in Ukraine and how it would unfold, it’s a good time look back on them and draw some lessons…
Feb 28, 2022
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Richard Hanania
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Lessons from Forecasting the Ukraine War
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January 2022
Fertility as the Final Boss in Chinese Development, and Richard Hanania Prediction Markets
Predictions, January 2022
Jan 13, 2022
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Richard Hanania
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Fertility as the Final Boss in Chinese Development, and Richard Hanania Prediction Markets
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September 2021
Futarchy: Robin Hanson on How Prediction Markets Can Take over the World
Transcript of interview
Sep 15, 2021
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Richard Hanania
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Futarchy: Robin Hanson on How Prediction Markets Can Take over the World
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May 2021
Predictions, Spring 2021
Intellectual honesty, and why Trump will be the 2024 nominee
May 12, 2021
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Richard Hanania
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Predictions, Spring 2021
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